Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 7.1 | 17.3% | 79 | 0.69% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 9.1 | 19.3% | 88 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 6.3 | 15.8% | 72 | 0.34% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 6.4 | 14.7% | 67 | 0.49% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.4 | 10.5% | 48 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 4.7 | 10.3% | 47 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.3 | 6.1% | 28 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.1 | 5.9% | 27 | 0.26% |
| All ages | 61 | 43.6 | 100% | 456 | 0.44% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 13783 | 58473 | 492 | 117 | 525 |
| Sep 23 | 13831 | 58681 | 494 | 119 | 573 |
| Sep 24 | 13890 | 58873 | 493 | 119 | 583 |
| Sep 25 | 13949 | 59032 | 493 | 119 | 556 |
| Sep 26 | 13995 | 59159 | 494 | 119 | 523 |
| Sep 27 | 13995 | 59239 | 494 | 119 | 497 |
| Sep 28 | 14056 | 59336 | 494 | 119 | 456 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 9091 | 34460 | 371 | 104 | 423 |
| Sep 23 | 9169 | 34596 | 373 | 104 | 482 |
| Sep 24 | 9244 | 34740 | 374 | 105 | 505 |
| Sep 25 | 9323 | 34858 | 376 | 105 | 517 |
| Sep 26 | 9330 | 34929 | 376 | 105 | 479 |
| Sep 27 | 9339 | 34971 | 376 | 105 | 456 |
| Sep 28 | 9453 | 35047 | 379 | 106 | 490 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 6.6 | 12.2% | 60 | 0.77% |
| 10-19 | 30 | 15.1 | 27.8% | 136 | 1.62% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 5.0 | 8.8% | 43 | 0.6% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 8.9 | 15.3% | 75 | 0.89% |
| 40-49 | 20 | 7.0 | 12.2% | 60 | 0.77% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 5.4 | 8.4% | 41 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 3.7 | 6.5% | 32 | 0.38% |
| 70+ | 8 | 4.1 | 8.8% | 43 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 114 | 55.9 | 100% | 490 | 0.76% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 7018 | 22997 | 348 | 85 | 436 |
| Sep 23 | 7077 | 23043 | 349 | 85 | 483 |
| Sep 24 | 7130 | 23120 | 350 | 85 | 513 |
| Sep 25 | 7163 | 23188 | 350 | 85 | 482 |
| Sep 26 | 7215 | 23217 | 351 | 85 | 455 |
| Sep 27 | 7235 | 23239 | 352 | 85 | 452 |
| Sep 28 | 7270 | 23273 | 356 | 85 | 427 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.6 | 8.4% | 36 | 0.66% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 9.7 | 22.2% | 95 | 1.75% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 4.1 | 10.8% | 46 | 1.02% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 7.1 | 15.7% | 67 | 1.23% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 5.4 | 11.7% | 50 | 1% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.0 | 10.8% | 46 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.9 | 11.5% | 49 | 0.77% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.0 | 8.9% | 38 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 35 | 40.9 | 100% | 427 | 0.94% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 14731 | 66798 | 584 | 99 | 535 |
| Sep 23 | 14794 | 67033 | 588 | 100 | 569 |
| Sep 24 | 14870 | 67255 | 591 | 101 | 606 |
| Sep 25 | 14928 | 67415 | 591 | 101 | 563 |
| Sep 26 | 14956 | 67523 | 591 | 101 | 520 |
| Sep 27 | 14990 | 67615 | 591 | 101 | 478 |
| Sep 28 | 15047 | 67789 | 598 | 102 | 474 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 7.9 | 15.6% | 74 | 0.63% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 8.3 | 15.2% | 72 | 0.43% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 9.7 | 19.4% | 92 | 0.43% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 7.1 | 15.2% | 72 | 0.53% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.6 | 9.7% | 46 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 5.3 | 8.6% | 41 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 4.3 | 8.9% | 42 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 4 | 3.7 | 7.4% | 35 | 0.27% |
| All ages | 57 | 50.9 | 100% | 474 | 0.4% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 51946 | 399506 | 1813 | 327 | 1661 |
| Sep 23 | 52107 | 400839 | 1816 | 327 | 1798 |
| Sep 24 | 52256 | 401644 | 1819 | 331 | 1816 |
| Sep 25 | 52413 | 402576 | 1832 | 332 | 1778 |
| Sep 26 | 52468 | 403228 | 1834 | 332 | 1600 |
| Sep 27 | 52515 | 403718 | 1835 | 332 | 1435 |
| Sep 28 | 52666 | 404360 | 1836 | 332 | 1278 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 16.3 | 14.2% | 181 | 0.3% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 21.0 | 17.9% | 229 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 23.7 | 19.4% | 248 | 0.24% |
| 30-39 | 30 | 17.0 | 15% | 192 | 0.25% |
| 40-49 | 31 | 15.6 | 12.1% | 155 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 10.3 | 9.5% | 121 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 5.7 | 5.4% | 69 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 14 | 7.9 | 6.5% | 83 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 151 | 117.4 | 100% | 1278 | 0.23% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 707084 | 3296228 | 38064 | 7876 | 25881 |
| Sep 23 | 710145 | 3307794 | 38183 | 7895 | 28518 |
| Sep 24 | 712827 | 3317741 | 38288 | 7912 | 29110 |
| Sep 25 | 715690 | 3326029 | 38393 | 7923 | 28589 |
| Sep 26 | 717396 | 3333351 | 38446 | 7926 | 26854 |
| Sep 27 | 718810 | 3337459 | 38509 | 7930 | 25073 |
| Sep 28 | 721895 | 3344376 | 38686 | 7962 | 24614 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 330 | 302.9 | 12.4% | 3057 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 590 | 546.6 | 22% | 5417 | 0.72% |
| 20-29 | 358 | 299.4 | 12.2% | 3007 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 455 | 374.9 | 14.9% | 3667 | 0.48% |
| 40-49 | 448 | 330.3 | 12.8% | 3160 | 0.45% |
| 50-59 | 374 | 262.1 | 10.5% | 2578 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 271 | 198.3 | 7.9% | 1955 | 0.26% |
| 70+ | 259 | 180.0 | 7.2% | 1773 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 3085 | 2494.4 | 100% | 24614 | 0.42% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-10-20 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7582"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges